Mick Bransfield

U.S. Navy sailors betting bottles of booze to help locate a lost submarine might be the greatest sea tale in the entire history of the U.S. Navy. This (true) anecdote was popularized by James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds (2004), which cites a passage from Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story Of American Submarine

Here is an updated version #3 of the “prediction market database” started by Jacob Lagerros and updated by Nuño Sempere: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_LdVAARaSHrI5CWiYKH7dV9s/edit?usp=sharing These are almost certainly not every single prediction market in existence or that was ever created, but an attempt to catalogue as much as possible. Please add any that you see are absent. This