Elections

Intrade 2004, 2008, & 2012 U.S. Presidential election forecasts

Elections / / ,

Today is the 13th anniversary of Intrade’s collapse. Before Kalshi, Polymarket, and even PredictIt, Intrade was the dominant prediction market, drawing the most traders and cited by news media. Several weeks ago, in another pointless and uninformed argument on social media, someone referenced Intrade prices as being bad at forecasting events. That made me wonder […]

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ForecastEx Year One

Elections, Uncategorized / /

The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi have sucked up most of the oxygen in the prediction market news media and Twittersphere, to the point that ForecastEx and crypto.com are now merely afterthoughts. (Maybe not so much crypto.com after today’s partnership announcement with Underdog). Kalshi monthly volume is ~$700m, Polymarket is ~$1b. What do you think

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Public Comments Slam CFTC Proposed Election Contract Ban

Elections, Government, Regulatory / /

In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) third public comment hearing regarding election contracts in the past two years, public comments overwhelmingly opposed the proposed rule, with 755 comments opposing, 7 supporting, and 59 unclear, duplications, or spam. Information about the two prior public comment periods can be found here. This most recent public comment

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Pollster Rating Wars!

Elections / / , ,

With both sides surviving the 2020 Model Wars, the election forecasting blood feud continues through another election. In April 2023, news leaked out that Nate Silver and several FiveThirtyEight staffers would be victims of Disney’s mass layoffs.  Silver’s last day working for “The Mouse” was June 30th and per his contract, ABC/Disney kept rights to

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