The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi have sucked up most of the oxygen in the prediction market news media and Twittersphere, to the point that ForecastEx and crypto.com are now merely afterthoughts. (Maybe not so much crypto.com after today’s partnership announcement with Underdog). Kalshi monthly volume is ~$700m, Polymarket is ~$1b. What do you think […]
ForecastEx Year One Read More »
U.S. Navy sailors betting bottles of booze to help locate a lost submarine might be the greatest sea tale in the entire history of the U.S. Navy. This (true) anecdote was popularized by James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds (2004), which cites a passage from Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story Of American Submarine
Scotch & Sonar: Betting to Find a Lost Sub Read More »
Here is an updated version #3 of the “prediction market database” started by Jacob Lagerros and updated by Nuño Sempere: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_LdVAARaSHrI5CWiYKH7dV9s/edit?usp=sharing These are almost certainly not every single prediction market in existence or that was ever created, but an attempt to catalogue as much as possible. Please add any that you see are absent. This
Prediction Market Database (v3) Read More »
This is an update in a series of posts looking at Kalshi trading volume on its July 1st anniversary You can also read previous posts for its one-year and two-year and three-year birthdays. One caveat to everything below is that we’re missing market data from 10 days: 2024-10-13, 2024-11-15, 2024-12-10, 2024-12-13, 2025-01-01, 2025-01-04, 2025-01-06, 2025-02-13,
Kalshi turns three years old today, and the past year has been a rollercoaster for the exchange: Previously we took a looked at Kalshi for its one-year and two-year anniversaries, and now we’re again taking a look at the exchange’s growth since we last checked in. Top markets by trading volume Previously limited to markets
Kalshi Turns Three Read More »
