Update 5/11/2024: CFTC proposal to ban election contracts Summary Meeting Details Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold an open meeting on Friday, May 10, 2024 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT) at the CFTC’s Washington, D.C. headquarters. Members of the public can attend the meeting in person, listen by phone, or view a live stream at […]
Cheat Sheet for May 10 CFTC Meeting on Event Contracts Read More »
Yale Professor Ray Fair recently updated his two-party vote share model on April 25, 2024, with the latest economic data. He now projects Biden to receive 51.72% of the two-party vote share in the 2024 General Election. We previously looked at Professor Fair’s model from Fall 2023 and Winter 2024. This model relies on economic
Fair Model Projects Biden Vote Increasing Read More »
There are two upcoming events related to the PredictIt (April 18th) and Kalshi (May 30th) lawsuits against the CFTC: (1) Clarke v. CFTC webinar The Federalist Society is hosting a webinar featuring the attorney representing the plaintiffs in the PredictIt lawsuit, as well as Aristotle’s General Counsel. Discussing Clarke v. CFTC: The Case of PredictIt
Two Upcoming Events About Prediction Markets’ Legal Status Read More »
The inane speculation about Donald Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee is in full swing, with the media having just finished covering all of the silly possibilities for RFK Jr.’s pick. (It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.) This article aims to measure how much the VP pick matters to political traders using share prices from Presidential markets in the Iowa
Does the Vice-Presidential pick matter? Read More »
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is the oldest active prediction market and one of a handful of platforms where U.S. persons can bet on American politics. We’ve previously looked at IEM and a few of its iterations over time. One thing IEM does not do well is make the data easily accessible. Below is an
IEM Presidential Dashboard Read More »
