Yale Professor Ray Fair recently updated his two-party vote share model on April 25, 2024, with the latest economic data. He now projects Biden to receive 51.72% of the two-party vote share in the 2024 General Election. We previously looked at Professor Fair’s model from Fall 2023 and Winter 2024. This model relies on economic
Fair Model Projects Biden Vote Increasing Read More »
The inane speculation about Donald Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee is in full swing, with the media having just finished covering all of the silly possibilities for RFK Jr.’s pick. (It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.) This article aims to measure how much the VP pick matters to political traders using share prices from Presidential markets in the Iowa
Does the Vice-Presidential pick matter? Read More »
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is the oldest active prediction market and one of a handful of platforms where U.S. persons can bet on American politics. We’ve previously looked at IEM and a few of its iterations over time. One thing IEM does not do well is make the data easily accessible. Below is an
IEM Presidential Dashboard Read More »
Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were
Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu Read More »
Immune from news stories like Special Counsel Hur’s report or President Joe Biden’s press conference, Professor Ray Fair’s 2024 economy-driven vote share model shows Biden gaining ground since the last quarterly economic data was released. A summary of Professor Fair’s two-party vote-share model can be found in a previous article and here is Fair’s description
Updated Fair model shows economic fundamentals boosting Biden Read More »
