We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races. The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re […]
How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms? Read More »
The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
PredictIt has markets for 18 of the 2022 U.S. Senate races and if we plot over time the price of Republican contracts against total shares traded we can visualize a price-volume curve that shifts as more competitive races increase trading volume while moving toward the center ($0.50/share) of the chart. Clicking on the below image
On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast. Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions. We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on
How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets? Read More »
