538

GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th)

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This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on […]

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Kemp – Walker Delta in 2022 Georgia General Election

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One of the most fascinating states, if not the most fascinating state, in recent elections is Georgia.  Historically a “red” state, Former Vice-President Joe Biden upset President Donald Trump with a plurality in 2020, while two incumbent Republican Senators were replaced with Democrats.  This was the first time since January 2003 that Georgia had been

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Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races

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FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating.  (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.)  In

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Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races?

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There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear.  Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were

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How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms?

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We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races.  The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re

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