SCOTUS

Gamblers are more confident in SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade than Alito delivering majority opinion

Government / / , , ,

Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets – […]

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Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022

Government / / , , ,

With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly

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