Government

Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon

Government / / , , , ,

In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th.  This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, […]

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Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term

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Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th.  However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most

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One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September

Government / /

A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of

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How accurate are Kalshi interest rate markets at predicting the Fed?

Government / /

On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell event contracts on where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but how accurate are these markets in predicting interest rates one month before the Fed is scheduled to meet? The Federal Reserve promotes national economic goals through several tools at its disposal, one of them being the “federal

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