Debt Ceiling

Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon

Government / / , , , ,

In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th.  This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, […]

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Kalshi v. PredictIt on U.S. Debt Ceiling

Government / / , ,

As Congress considers raising the Debt Ceiling yet again, Kalshi and PredictIt traders have different takes on whether (or rather when) Congress will take action this week. While their respective binary contracts operate similarly, the platforms themselves differ a great deal: PredictIt is a prediction market.  There are limits to both market size and amount

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