Futuur – MickBransfield.com

Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu

Elections / February 28, 2024 / 2024, ACE, Bookmaker, Election, Futuur, Hypermind, IEM, Insight, Metaculus, Polymarket, PredictIt, Presidential, Smarkets

Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were […]

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LK-99: The Dream Will Never Die

Continuing the last article’s theme of ‘too good to be true,’ we now turn our attention to LK-99. LK-99 is a compound that researchers in South Korea claimed could serve as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Superconductors are materials that, when cooled to a “critical temperature,” conduct electricity without energy loss. The most common use of