With four weeks left until PredictIt’s scheduled execution by the CFTC on February 15th, we’re taking a look at the markets offered by one of its competitors, Insight Prediction. Excluding sports, as of January 19th there are 36 markets in five categories: Category Markets Current Events 10 Economics 4 Russia/Ukraine 6 US Politics 14 World […]
Markets on Insight Prediction Read More »
There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear. Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were
Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races? Read More »
With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt
Remaining PredictIt markets with 75 days left Read More »
The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
