Metaculus

Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races?

Elections / / , , , , , , , , , ,

There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear.  Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were […]

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2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.  Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot.  The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight &  Decision Desk HQ) Five

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Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022

Global / / , , , , ,

Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons.  More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct

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