The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five […]
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,
Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August Read More »
Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets –
Even for a self-proclaimed “gaffe machine,” President Joe Biden outdid himself on March 26th with the declaration, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Biden’s bold statement was quickly walked back by the White House: “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.” Despite the President of the United States
Gamblers are betting on Putin to remain in power through 2022 Read More »
