Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets. In different Ipsos polls taken before and after […]
Trump Indictment Bump Read More »
Last Updated: 05/10/2024 Press coverage of PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC has been wanting. Online news coverage is disproportionately covering PredictIt and the CFTC as a gambling or legal story, rather than a political one. Yahoo even classified one of the Aristotle press releases under “Entertainment.” Below is a short timeline of events and media
PredictIt Legal Case Information Read More »
Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th. However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most
Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term Read More »
There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear. Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were
Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races? Read More »
With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt
Remaining PredictIt markets with 75 days left Read More »
