Even for a self-proclaimed “gaffe machine,” President Joe Biden outdid himself on March 26th with the declaration, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Biden’s bold statement was quickly walked back by the White House: “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”
Despite the President of the United States calling for regime change in Russia, one week later the prediction markets believe Putin will remain in power through the end of 2022:
| Platform | Yes | No |
| PredictIt | 0.80 | 0.21 |
| Polymarket | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Hypermind* | 0.83 | 0.17 |
*I switched the Yes and No prices for Hypermind to be consistent with the other two markets. They each define the market as follows:
- PredictIt: “Will Vladimir Putin remain president of Russia through 2022?”
- Polymarket: “Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022?”
- Hypermind: “In 2022, will president Vladimir Putin lose power in Russia?”
Biden’s ad-lib proclamation seems to have had the opposite effect on prediction markets: they see Putin as more likely to remain in power through 2022 than they did one week ago.
PredictIt closing prices for Putin remaining in power dropped 2 cents the day of Biden’s speech, but since that day has increased from 74 to 79 cents:
Polymarket share prices for Putin’s remaining President throughout 2022 increased from 75 cents to 77 cents:
Hypermind has Putin’s chances increasing from 79% to 83%:
And correlated markets show similar predictions:
- PredictIt bettors don’t see Putin as the next European or G20 leader to leave office. (In both markets, Putin is only the third-highest “Yes” price).
- Smarkets has Putin both remaining in power through May 1, 2022, and winning re-election in 2024.
PredictIt is a prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International, Inc. PredictIt limits both investment amounts and number of investors per market.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain. Traders buy and sell using a stable coin pinned to the U.S. dollar. Polymarket was recently fined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and forced to shutter its U.S. operations.
Hypermind is a French forecasting market that offer free participation by using “Hyper virtual currency” which has no value outside of Hypermind but incentivizes players with cash prizes for the top forecasters.
All three markets offer binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. (Please note that currency varies by platform.)
Losing wars has not been helpful to Russian autocrats, but gamblers don’t seem to see Putin’s political survival as tied to winning in Ukraine. The Russian army is bogged down, low on supplies, and already redefining “victory.” At the same time, Ukraine bond prices are increasing and Zelenskyy is seen as likely to remain in power (75% probability of remaining throughout 2022 on Hypermind and $0.95/share for remaining through April 22nd on Polymarket)
Aside from the war in Ukraine, Biden’s declaration for removal, or economic upheaval in Russia, recent speculation about Putin’s health also seems to have had no impact on the prediction markets.