A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of the 29 Fed interest rate markets.
Looking forward, Kalshi Federal Reserve interest rate market “Yes” contract prices on August 21, 2022, one month before the upcoming September 20-21 FOMC meeting:
| Market Name | Rate | High | Low |
| FED-22SEP-T0.25 | >0.25% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T0.5 | >0.5% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T0.75 | >0.75% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T1 | >1.00% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T1.25 | >1.25% | 96 | 96 |
| FED-22SEP-T1.5 | >1.50% | 98 | 98 |
| FED-22SEP-T1.75 | >1.75% | 97 | 97 |
| FED-22SEP-T2.00 | >2.00% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T2.25 | >2.25% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T2.50 | >2.50% | 99 | 99 |
| FED-22SEP-T2.75 | >2.75% | 97 | 96 |
| FED-22SEP-T3.00 | >3.00% | 44 | 39 |
| FED-22SEP-T3.25 | >3.25% | 3 | 2 |
| FED-22SEP-T3.50 | >3.50% | 1 | 1 |
Kalshi traders’ forecasts are in line with the August 16-19 Reuters poll of economists. A majority predicted the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (increasing the upper bound to 3.00%), while roughly one-fifth predicted an increase of 75 basis points (increasing the upper bound to 3.25%).
Please note that Kalshi Fed interest rate contracts are binary options (Yes or No) on whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will exceed a certain level. If the Fed sets the upper bound of the federal funds rate to 3.00%, then FED-22SEP-T3.00 (>3.00%) will result in “No” because it did not exceed 3.00%.
More detailed forecasts for the September 20-21 FOMC meeting can be found on Kalshi’s Fed Forecast page.
Please keep in mind that:
- This analysis only uses the “Yes” contract prices from Kalshi market data.
- The high and low “Yes” contract prices for the day don’t reflect the closing price, average price, or any trading volume for that day. In some circumstances, the prices reflect the bid-ask spread.
- On August 21, 2022, only three markets (FED-22SEP-T2.75, FED-22SEP-T3.00, and FED-22SEP-T3.25) had any trading volume at all.