Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts. This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor.
We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was creating price discrepancies in the “Yes” and “No” contracts for Democrats and Republican candidates to win the 2022 Oregon Governor’s race.
The 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market is low volume (roughly 1% of the active shares as the 2024 Presidential market) and in less than 48 hours, the Independent contract accounts for over 5% of all active shares (1,252 out of 24,425). If we calculate the “Yes” prices by taking a simple average of the “BestBuyYesCost” and “BestSellYesCost”, and do the same for “No” with the “BestBuyNoCost” and “BestSellNoCost,” we find the PredictIt traders still see Johnson as a long shot at the moment:
| Contract | “Yes” price average | “No” price average |
| Democratic | 0.735 | 0.265 |
| Republican | 0.225 | 0.775 |
| Independent | 0.090 | 0.910 |
Despite the long odds independent candidacies typically face, there are still reasons for gamblers to see Johnson as having a chance in this race. An independent poll conducted in January showed Johnson at 11%, with a sole positive message (albeit taken from her website) moving her support to 30%. And Johnson is leading the fundraising race among all candidates with no small help from local Billionaire and Nike founder Phil Knight.
Possibly because of the confusing nature of a “Nonaffiliated” candidacy or Johnson’s long affiliation with the Democratic Party (she was still serving as a Democratic State Senator even when she first announced her “Nonaffiliated” candidacy) PredictIt added this Supplementary Comment to the market rules:
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be “Independent.”
PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC. PredictIt traders can buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. PredictIt traders can buy shares on which party’s nominee (defined as “Democratic” or “Republican” or “Independent”) will win or lose the 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial election.