Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th. However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most markets.
Insight Prediction:
Polymarket:
Manifold Markets:
Metaculus:
The catch is that these markets are asking about PredictIt’s short term survival:
| Market | Jan 15 | Jan 31 | change | Survival Date |
| Insight | 0.118 | 0.85 | +0.732 | 2/16/2023 |
| Polymarket | 0.1136 | 0.8539 | +0.7403 | 2/17/2023 |
| Manifold | 0.26 | 0.91 | +0.65 | 3/01/2023 |
| Metaculus | 0.31 | 0.38 | +0.07 | 3/15/2023 |
When we look at PredictIt’s chances for operating (continuously) through the remainder of 2023, traders are less optimistic. While Manifold traders think it’s highly likely that the prediction market survives until March 1st (91%), they are more doubtful about PredictIt’s chances to operate through December 31st (30%) or “operate normally in March” (50%).
While traders seemingly believe it won the battle with the Fifth Circuit’s injunction, they are far from certain PredictIt will win the war and be allowed to continue operating indefinitely, let alone allowed to operate as normal and open new markets. PredictIt could lose the lawsuit outright, or win a pyrrhic victory where it’s only permitted to continue until the existing 15 markets are resolved.
Oral arguments on an appeal by PredictIt traders are scheduled for February 8th in New Orleans, after which the Fifth Circuit is expected to issue an opinion. The injunction allows PredictIt to continue operating while the Court completes its consideration of the appeal.
Insight Prediction is a new prediction market available worldwide, except in the United States and Russia. Prices used are the “latest yes price” and Insight prices go to the thousandth place. Insight specifically asks, “Will Predictit be in operation in the US past February 15th, 2023?”
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain and open to persons outside the United States. Polymarket asks, “If users can place trades on PredictIt on February 17, 2023, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.” Yes prices were captured from the Polymarket Whales website on January 15th and January 31st.
Manifold Markets “is a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.” Users can create their own markets, unlike most prediction markets. Manifold currently has a PredictIt group with eight PredictIt-related open markets. The market used in the chart above was defined as “Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO. This will resolve YES even if trading is limited based on country – e.g. if PredictIt is operating in non-US countries, that counts as YES.”
Metaculus is a forecasting platform that aggregates predictions by encouraging users to compete in predicting probabilities on certain questions. No money is charged or exchanged, although certain contests have cash prizes. Probabilities used are the community prediction for the market. Metaculus specifically asks, “Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023? The question will resolve as Yes if, on March 15, 2023 at 12:00 pm EST, an ordinary user in the USA can create an account on PredictIt, deposit funds, trade on a prediction market using real currency, and withdraw funds from PredictIt, all legally and without the use of a VPN or similar technology to mask the user’s location.”