The Battle of Bakhmut technically began on August 1, 2022, but escalation by both Russia and Ukraine over the winter turned it into World War I-style trench warfare. Russian troops are slowly and steadily gaining ground in and around the city at the cost of high casualties. At the same time, the upcoming Russian presidential election is now less than 12 months away (the first round of voting begins on Sunday, March 17, 2024) and traders on different prediction markets are placing bets on both Bakhmut and Russian politics. Below we’re exploring the correlation between Russian forces successfully capturing the city of Bakhmut on various dates with various levels of Putin’s survival (political and literal).
Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to measure the linear relationship between the Putin and Bakhmut markets’ daily prices and implied probabilities. Values range from -1 to 1, with 1 being a perfect positive linear correlation, -1 being a perfect inverse relationship, and 0 meaning no linear correlation.
On Insight Prediction, where traders bet with real money (or at least real crypto) there is low liquidity, traders see little correlation between Russian success in Bakmut by April 20, 2023, and Putin remaining in power through June 20, 2023 (and a negative correlation at that: -0.011287).
The ‘Latest Yes Price’ from each Insight market was captured daily – and at the same time – from February 19, 2023, to April 2, 2023.
On Manifold Markets, where there is higher liquidity with fake money, we’re comparing the correlation between five Bakhmut markets and seven Putin markets on Manifold from their creation through March 30, 2023. The last available implied probability of each day was used, and on days with no trading, the implied probability was forward-filled from the last day of active trading. Markets opened and closed at different times, so in comparing overlapping days between markets there are some relationships with very few days of data to compare.
Bakhmut markets:
- Will Bakhmut fall into Russian hands by the end of December?
- Will Russia Control Bakhmut? (February 28)
- Will Russia control Bakhmut by March 31?
- Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20?
- Will Russia control Bakhmut before June 1?
Putin survival markets:
- Political survival in 2023:
- Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?
- Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023?
- Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2023?
- Political survival in 2024:
- Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?
- Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024?
- Physical survival:
- Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?
- Will Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Below is a table with Pearson’s correlation coefficient between each Bakhmut and Putin market, including the number of overlapping days between the two markets.
| Bakhmut Market | Putin Market | Correlation | Days |
| December 31, 2022 | President end of 2023 | 0.663282 | 12 |
| February 28, 2023 | President end of 2023 | 0.13976 | 71 |
| March 31, 2023 | President end of 2023 | -0.534808 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | President end of 2023 | -0.441398 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | President end of 2023 | -0.123771 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | Leader end of 2023 | -0.862015 | 32 |
| February 28, 2023 | Leader end of 2023 | 0.003601 | 78 |
| March 31, 2023 | Leader end of 2023 | -0.656077 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | Leader end of 2023 | -0.557797 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | Leader end of 2023 | -0.118946 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | Relocate in 2023 | 0.541077 | 20 |
| February 28, 2023 | Relocate in 2023 | 0.274259 | 78 |
| March 31, 2023 | Relocate in 2023 | 0.915905 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | Relocate in 2023 | 0.880613 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | Relocate in 2023 | 0.84299 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | President end of 2024 | N/A | 0 |
| February 28, 2023 | President end of 2024 | N/A | 1 |
| March 31, 2023 | President end of 2024 | 0.579206 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | President end of 2024 | 0.582511 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | President end of 2024 | 0.855523 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | Re-elected 2024 | -0.393964 | 32 |
| February 28, 2023 | Re-elected 2024 | -0.495235 | 78 |
| March 31, 2023 | Re-elected 2024 | 0.647044 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | Re-elected 2024 | 0.653382 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | Re-elected 2024 | 0.74821 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | Die by 2024 | 0.156461 | 32 |
| February 28, 2023 | Die by 2024 | -0.123308 | 78 |
| March 31, 2023 | Die by 2024 | 0.282363 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | Die by 2024 | 0.217159 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | Die by 2024 | -0.002834 | 21 |
| December 31, 2022 | Alive in 2030 | N/A | 0 |
| February 28, 2023 | Alive in 2030 | -0.152353 | 55 |
| March 31, 2023 | Alive in 2030 | 0.788898 | 27 |
| April 20, 2023 | Alive in 2030 | 0.698952 | 27 |
| June 1, 2023 | Alive in 2030 | 0.526018 | 21 |
Manifold traders don’t seem to connect Russia taking Bakhmut and Putin’s political survival in 2023 or his physical health. And in general, they believe his regime is secure in 2023 (as do Insight Prediction, Polymarket, Good Judgement, Zeitgeist, American Civics Exchange, and Metaculus.) However, as the Battle of Bakhmut continues throughout the first half of 2023, there begins to be high correlation between Russia taking Bakhmut and Putin’s political survival in 2024. Traders may see the failure of Russia to capture Bakhmut in a timely fashion – and with ever-increasing casualties – as hurting Putin’s re-election chances next year. Then again, there is also high correlation between Bakhmut and Putin leaving Russia in 2023, so this could be noise.
It should be noted that these markets vary in both liquidity and number of participants (as low as 14 total traders), a small sample of days is used in some cases, and correlation does not imply causation.