Two play-money prediction markets were set up to forecast the number of hurricanes in 2024. One market was closed to experts, and the other was open to the public. The first, CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Markets (CAHM), is run by Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL). The market ran from December 10, 2023, […]
Forecasting the 2024 Hurricane Season: Manifold v. Experts Read More »
Many stories have been about the upcoming “hyperactive” hurricane season predicted this year, but how accurate are these forecasts about the number of hurricanes each year? Accurate hurricane forecasts have immense social and economic value. Improvements in merely forecasting the accuracy of hurricane wind speed have been estimated to “reduced hurricane costs – damages, recovery
How Accurate are Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts? Read More »
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a public meeting to discuss proposed rules regarding event contracts. Under current regulations, there are only a few enumerated restrictions on contracts, including war, terrorism, and assassination. Those three restrictions were mentioned repeatedly during the two-hour meeting, reminding one of the apocryphal story about former Secretary of
Kissinger’s Betting Odds Read More »
The Battle of Bakhmut technically began on August 1, 2022, but escalation by both Russia and Ukraine over the winter turned it into World War I-style trench warfare. Russian troops are slowly and steadily gaining ground in and around the city at the cost of high casualties. At the same time, the upcoming Russian presidential
Are prediction markets linking Putin’s survival to success in Bakhmut? Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
