Many stories have been about the upcoming “hyperactive” hurricane season predicted this year, but how accurate are these forecasts about the number of hurricanes each year? Accurate hurricane forecasts have immense social and economic value. Improvements in merely forecasting the accuracy of hurricane wind speed have been estimated to “reduced hurricane costs – damages, recovery […]
How Accurate are Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts? Read More »
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a public meeting to discuss proposed rules regarding event contracts. Under current regulations, there are only a few enumerated restrictions on contracts, including war, terrorism, and assassination. Those three restrictions were mentioned repeatedly during the two-hour meeting, reminding one of the apocryphal story about former Secretary of
Kissinger’s Betting Odds Read More »
The Battle of Bakhmut technically began on August 1, 2022, but escalation by both Russia and Ukraine over the winter turned it into World War I-style trench warfare. Russian troops are slowly and steadily gaining ground in and around the city at the cost of high casualties. At the same time, the upcoming Russian presidential
Are prediction markets linking Putin’s survival to success in Bakhmut? Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
Even for a self-proclaimed “gaffe machine,” President Joe Biden outdid himself on March 26th with the declaration, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Biden’s bold statement was quickly walked back by the White House: “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.” Despite the President of the United States
Gamblers are betting on Putin to remain in power through 2022 Read More »
