Government

One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September

Government / /

A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of […]

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How accurate are Kalshi interest rate markets at predicting the Fed?

Government / /

On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell event contracts on where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but how accurate are these markets in predicting interest rates one month before the Fed is scheduled to meet? The Federal Reserve promotes national economic goals through several tools at its disposal, one of them being the “federal

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Gamblers are more confident in SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade than Alito delivering majority opinion

Government / / , , ,

Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets –

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Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022

Government / / , , ,

With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly

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Kalshi v. PredictIt on U.S. Debt Ceiling

Government / / , ,

As Congress considers raising the Debt Ceiling yet again, Kalshi and PredictIt traders have different takes on whether (or rather when) Congress will take action this week. While their respective binary contracts operate similarly, the platforms themselves differ a great deal: PredictIt is a prediction market.  There are limits to both market size and amount

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