538

Who won the 2020 Model Wars?

Elections / / , , , , ,

In the summer of 2020, online trash talking between FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris sparked the “Model Wars.” Now that the dust has settled, I’m comparing the Brier scores and the number of correctly called states from their final state-level model outputs on November 3, 2020. Please note that the models […]

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Were gamblers more accurate than the forecasting models in 2020?

Elections / / , , , ,

Election forecasting models took a hit to their credibility for missing Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 but were generally accurate in 2020.  Because these models are dependent on polling, we can probably expect to see future issues with forecasting elections as pollster response rates drop, households disconnect their landlines, and social trust declines.  At the

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