The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five […]
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast. Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions. We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on
How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets? Read More »
We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions. This is challenging because the models made different predictions. The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s
Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time Read More »
In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.) Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious
Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions? Read More »
We previously looked at Brier scores for The Economist’s 2020 Presidential model predictions over time, and surprisingly found the scores worsened closer to Election Day. Given the closeness of their predictions, I assumed FiveThirtyEight’s Brier scores would trend the same way but was wrong again. In the chart below you can see Brier scores for
How did FiveThirtyEight’s model perform over time? Read More »
