Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were […]
Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
Even for a self-proclaimed “gaffe machine,” President Joe Biden outdid himself on March 26th with the declaration, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Biden’s bold statement was quickly walked back by the White House: “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.” Despite the President of the United States
Gamblers are betting on Putin to remain in power through 2022 Read More »
