Intrade 2004, 2008, & 2012 U.S. Presidential election forecasts
Today is the 13th anniversary of Intrade’s collapse. Before Kalshi, Polymarket, and even PredictIt, Intrade was the dominant prediction market, drawing the most traders and cited by news media. Several weeks ago, in another pointless and uninformed argument on social media, someone referenced Intrade prices as being bad at forecasting events. That made me wonder […]
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