Presidential

Does the Vice-Presidential pick matter?

The inane speculation about Donald Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee is in full swing, with the media having just finished covering all of the silly possibilities for RFK Jr.’s pick.  (It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.) This article aims to measure how much the VP pick matters to political traders using share prices from Presidential markets in the Iowa

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Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu        

Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt.  Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were

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