Presidential

Updated Fair model shows economic fundamentals boosting Biden

Elections / / , , , ,

Immune from news stories like Special Counsel Hur’s report or President Joe Biden’s press conference, Professor Ray Fair’s 2024 economy-driven vote share model shows Biden gaining ground since the last quarterly economic data was released. A summary of Professor Fair’s two-party vote-share model can be found in a previous article and here is Fair’s description […]

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Ray Fair vs. Iowa Electronic Markets

Elections / / , , , , ,

The New York Times recently wrote about how “The Fed’s Decisions Now Could Alter the 2024 Elections” (11/17/2023) and cited Yale Professor Ray Fair’s economy-driven election forecasting model: Professor Fair’s pioneering U.S. elections model does something that was fairly radical when he created it in the 1970s. It analyzes politics without really considering politics. Instead,

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FEC Reports Fail to Move Election Markets

Elections / / , , ,

We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination.  Those reports are: Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st.  The next period

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DWAC is immune from Trump’s presidential chances – for better or worse

Elections / / , , ,

The stock price for former President Donald Trump’s long-suffering SPAC seems to be unaffected by his prospects of winning the 2024 Presidential Election or his various legal issues. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) is a “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company established on a stock exchange to raise funds for future unidentified acquisitions

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GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th)

Elections / / , , , ,

This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on

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