weather

Forecasting the 2024 Hurricane Season: Manifold v. Experts

Two play-money prediction markets were set up to forecast the number of hurricanes in 2024. One market was closed to experts, and the other was open to the public. The first, CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Markets (CAHM), is run by Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL). The market ran from December 10, 2023, […]

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How Accurate are Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts?

Many stories have been about the upcoming “hyperactive” hurricane season predicted this year, but how accurate are these forecasts about the number of hurricanes each year?  Accurate hurricane forecasts have immense social and economic value.  Improvements in merely forecasting the accuracy of  hurricane wind speed have been estimated to “reduced hurricane costs – damages, recovery

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