On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat. Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks.
There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus his trouble in both polling and fundraising. Regardless of the reasons, PredictIt quickly offered a market on whom Trump will endorse next in the Alabama Senate primary.
The two binary contracts currently offered are:
- Katie Britt: Former Chief-of-Staff to retiring Alabama Senator Richard Shelby
- Michael Durant: Veteran and pilot, known for his role in the “Black Hawk Down” battle
If we calculate the “Yes” prices by taking a simple average of the “BestBuyYesCost” and “BestSellYesCost”, and do the same for “No” with the “BestBuyNoCost” and “BestSellNoCost,” we find the “next endorsement race” standing at “No” endorsement:
| Candidate | “Yes” price | “No” price |
| Britt | 0.335 | 0.665 |
| Durant | 0.20 | 0.80 |
PredictIt traders see no more endorsements coming from Trump in the Republican Alabama Senate primary.
There is no clear leader in the race. Mike Durant is leading in the polls, but well under 50%, while Katie Britt leads in fundraising. Third-party groups like Club for Growth and Senate Leadership Fund previously fought over Brooks, who is now a distant third in polling and fundraising. Senator Shelby, who has roughly $16 million leftover in various campaign and PAC accounts, has pledged to give his money to help his former aide Britt.
One important consideration to note: If Trump endorses multiple candidates, then the market is resolved in alphabetical order (“ranked first in last name alphabetical order”) which obviously favors Britt. This tiebreaker likely contributes to why PredictIt traders see Britt as more likely (or less unlikely) than Durant to resolve as “Yes” while trailing in the polls.
A few caveats:
- If Trump endorses no candidate by the day before the May 24th primary, then both contracts are resolved as “No.”
- PredictIt can add additional contracts for other candidates and potential endorsees.
Complete market rules from PredictIt:
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, following launch of this market on March 23, 2022, is next endorsed by Donald Trump in the 2022 Alabama Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. No subsequent statement about Mo Brooks shall be relevant for purposes of this market.
PredictIt will consider any statement to be an endorsement if former President Trump either states that he is endorsing the candidate or unambiguously asks voters to vote for the candidate.
In the event that an endorsement is ambiguous, PredictIt shall rely on statements issued on former President Trump’s website https://www.donaldjtrump.com, in order to resolve this market.
Should Mr. Trump not endorse a different candidate subsequent to the withdrawal of his endorsement of Mo Brooks on March 23, 2022, and before the day of the primary, all contracts in this market shall resolve as No.
In the event that Mr. Trump endorses two or more different candidates simultaneously, or it is not possible to determine the chronological order of multiple endorsements, this market will be resolved in favor of the candidate, among those endorsed, ranked first in last name alphabetical order.
Additional contracts identifying candidates, other than Mo Brooks, not listed at the time of the launch of this market may be added at any time prior to the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.