For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume.
Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate what traders believe is the probability of the event happening. Unlike prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange for event contracts. These contracts are considered a type of asset class, and insider trading is prohibited. Markets on Kalshi vary by the number of contracts offered and the length of time events are open.
Unsurprisingly, the top markets by dollar volume were dominated by COVID-19 and the economy:
| Event | Summary | Dollar Volume |
| CASEM-22FEB01 | COVID daily case max | $815,918 |
| VAROMIC-22JAN01 | Omicron share | $670,333 |
| FED-22MAR | Fed interest rates | $608,980 |
| FED-22JUN | Fed interest rates | $571,056 |
| RECSS-22JUL | Recession by 2022 Q2 | $567,777 |
The market data was taken from Kalshi’s public API at noon on June 30, 2022. Below is a brief description of the rules by market:
- CASEM-22FEB01 (“COVID daily case max”) The number of reported new COVID-19 cases in the US for any given day after Issuance and before February 01, 2022.
- VAROMIC-22JAN01 (“Omicron share”) The percentage of total U.S. COVID-19 cases comprising Omicron variant, as estimated by the CDC.
- FED-22MAR (“Fed interest rates”) If the target federal funds rate is greater than X% following the Federal Reserve’s March meeting.
- FED-22JUN (“Fed interest rates”) If the upper bound of the target federal funds range is greater than X% following the Federal Reserve’s June 15, 2022 meeting.
- RECSS-22JUL (“Recession by 2022 Q2”) If the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is strictly less than zero in at least one of Q3 2021, Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022.
Of the 2,555 markets available through their Public API, these are the only five with a dollar volume greater than $500,000.