With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt more time.
Of the remaining 33 markets, 12 settle at the end of the 2022 calendar year:
- Harris files for President before 2023?
- Pence files for President before 2023?
- Hu on Politburo Standing Cte before ’23?
- Biden issues a veto before 2023?
- Harris tie-breakers in 2022?
- Filibuster ends with <60 votes in 2022?
- Walensky CDC director through 2022?
- Fauci NIAID director through 2022?
- Marijuana federally rescheduled in 2022?
- Putin Russian president through 2022?
- Lukashenko in office throughout 2022?
- Corporate tax rate for 2023?
Another four markets have settlement dates in 2023 but before February 15th:
- GOP Senate seats after midterms?
- GOP governors after midterms?
- Sen. Majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?
- Who will control the Senate after 2022?
While four other markets have no set end date but will almost certainly be settled one way or another before February 15th:
- Which party will win the GA Senate race?
- How many Senators re-elected in 2022?
- Closest Senate race in 2022?
- Who’ll be Speaker in the next Congress?
Of the outstanding 13 markets that may not live to be settled, two with set end dates occur in 2023, but after February 15th:
- AOC files for President before 2024?
- Will Biden be impeached by 6/30/2023?
Nine of the remaining markets will likely settle in 2024 or 2025:
- Will Biden resign during his first term?
- Which party wins the presidency in 2024?
- Woman president in 2024?
- 2024 presidential election winner?
- Harris on 2024 Democratic ticket?
- Harris the 47th US president?
- GOP 2024 presidential nominee?
- Democratic 2024 presidential nominee?
- First primary in 2024 Dem. nomination?
And two markets could settle at any point from today until well into the future:
- First WH Cabinet member to leave?
- Next Latin American leader out?
Roughly one-half of the 33 remaining PredictIt markets are already available in some form on Insight Predictions. In the table below, you can find the remaining 33 PredictIt markets, their estimated settlement dates, plus 17 corresponding (but not necessarily identical) markets on Insight Prediction. Links to each market are in the respective market’s ID number.
Asterisks by settlement dates indicates an estimated date or range. For example, we will know whether Vice-President Kamala Harris is on the 2024 Democratic ticket at some point in 2024, but we do not know the specific date.
The table is for informational purposes only. If you would like to do further research, please go to each platform directly and read each market’s rules.
| PredictIt_Name | PI_ID | PI_End_Date | Insight_Name | IP_ID |
| Which party wins the presidency in 2024? | 6867 | 11/05/2024* | Which Party Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 67 |
| Who will control the Senate after 2022? | 6874 | 01/31/2023 | ||
| Harris files for President before 2023? | 6953 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| Pence files for President before 2023? | 6975 | 12/31/2022 | Will Mike Pence File to Run for President Before 2023? | 83522 |
| Woman president in 2024? | 7013 | 11/05/2024* | ||
| AOC files for President before 2024? | 7014 | 12/31/2023 | ||
| GOP 2024 presidential nominee? | 7053 | 2024* | Who Will Win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 12448 |
| Democratic 2024 presidential nominee? | 7057 | 2024* | Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 16502 |
| Which party will win the GA Senate race? | 7107 | 12/6/2022* | Which Party Will Win the 2022 U.S. Senate Election in Georgia? | 17022 |
| Will Biden resign during his first term? | 7136 | 01/20/2025 | Will Joe Biden Resign During his First Term? | 748 |
| First primary in 2024 Dem. nomination? | 7158 | 2024* | ||
| Hu on Politburo Standing Cte before ’23? | 7210 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| How many Senators re-elected in 2022? | 7254 | 12/6/2022* | ||
| Who’ll be Speaker in the next Congress? | 7326 | 01/03/2023* | Who Will Be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the Next Congress? | 288 |
| Harris the 47th US president? | 7419 | 2025* | Will Kamala Harris Be the 47th US President? (ETH) | 18453 |
| 2024 presidential election winner? | 7456 | 11/05/2024* | Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (BTC) | 18056 |
| Will Biden be impeached by 6/30/2023? | 7485 | 06/30/2023 | Will Joe Biden Be Impeached by June 30, 2023? | 729 |
| First WH Cabinet member to leave? | 7520 | N/A | ||
| Sen. Majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023? | 7544 | 02/01/2023 | Who Will Be Senate Majority Leader on Feb. 1, 2023? | 714 |
| GOP Senate seats after midterms? | 7586 | 02/10/2023 | ||
| Harris on 2024 Democratic ticket? | 7629 | 2024* | ||
| GOP governors after midterms? | 7632 | 02/10/2023 | How Many Republican Governors Will There Be After the Midterms? | 94516 |
| Closest Senate race in 2022? | 7634 | 11/08/2022* | Which 2022 Senate Race Will Be the Closest? | 94410 |
| Biden issues a veto before 2023? | 7642 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| Harris tie-breakers in 2022? | 7673 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| Filibuster ends with <60 votes in 2022? | 7692 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| Walensky CDC director through 2022? | 7697 | 12/31/2022 | Will Rochelle Walensky Remain CDC Director Through the End of the Year? | 93325 |
| Fauci NIAID director through 2022? | 7702 | 12/31/2022 | Will Anthony Fauci Remain NIAID Director Through the End of the Year? | 747 |
| Marijuana federally rescheduled in 2022? | 7729 | 12/31/2022 | ||
| Putin Russian president through 2022? | 7760 | 12/31/2022 | Will Vladimir Putin Remain President of Russia Through 2022? | 171 |
| Lukashenko in office throughout 2022? | 7767 | 12/31/2022 | Will Alexander Lukashenko Remain President of Belarus Through 2022? | 430 |
| Next Latin American leader out? | 7793 | N/A | ||
| Corporate tax rate for 2023? | 7818 | 12/31/2022 |
With a few exceptions, the markets seem to be efficient with prices between corresponding – not identical – prediction markets generally within 2-5 cents. In cases such as “Who Will Be Senate Majority Leader on Feb. 1, 2023?” where PredictIt is pricing Chuck Schumer Yes contracts at $0.98/share while Insight is at $0.38/share, illiquidity seems to be the issue.
And, of course, there is Insight Prediction’s market about whether PredictIt survives past February 15th, currently being estimated by traders at around 12%.