We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination. Those reports are:
- June 30, 2023, for the close of books of the second quarter (report due July 15th)
- September 30, 2023, for the close of books for the third quarter (report due October 15th)
Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st. The next period ends on December 31st, with a reporting deadline of January 31, 2024 (after the Iowa Caucuses and potentially the New Hampshire primary.)
PredictIt is a non-profit prediction market run by the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Traders on PredictIt can buy and sell shares on whether an event will – or will not – happen. A correct share wins $1, and an incorrect share wins nothing. For example, in the market “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?”, PredictIt users can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether the listed candidates will win the 2024 Presidential Election. PredictIt share prices can indicate what traders estimate the probability of an event happening; “Yes” shares on Former President Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination are trading right now around $0.71/share, implying PredictIt traders believe he has a 71% chance of being the 2024 Republican nominee for President.
There are 21 (possible) candidates offered in the 2024 GOP presidential nomination market, including 12 who never filed to run (including Tucker Carlson, Senator Ted Cruz, Donald Trump Jr., Senator Rick Scott, Senator Josh Hawley, and others.) Former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out on October 28th after a lackluster campaign was in the race on September 30th and included below.
We’re using PredictIt’s closing share price for GOP Presidential candidates from one week before the close of books through one week after the reporting deadline.
There was virtually no movement around either the reporting period ending or the filing deadline. The dip in Trump’s price on July 18-19 was likely driven by his announcement that we would soon be indicted in special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation. Despite this negative news story driving down Trump’s PredictIt price for a few days, his stock in PredictIt still increased by one cent in the 30 days examined.
The biggest change over the period around the second quarter reports was the decline in Governor Ron DeSantis’ shares. While he may have gotten a small bump from the news that was in the top fundraising tier with Trump, overall DeSantis was down $0.10/share over those thirty days. The summer of 2023 was rough for DeSantis, and the week of the reporting deadline was no exception: DeSantis was losing his own state to Trump, conducting damage control with donors, and cutting campaign staff due to financial pressure.
Over the 30 days around the third quarter reporting deadline, the biggest change among candidates was the decline in businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s shares. Somewhat ironically, on September 11th Ramaswamy’s Fav/Unfav numbers went underwater in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracking. After peaking at $0.21/share on August 20th, the increase in Ramaswamy’s unfavourability following revelations in late August that Ramaswamy is not a registered Republican and has espoused conspiratorial beliefs about the September 11th attacks.
Second Quarter PredictIt Share Price changes:
| Candidate | June 23 | July 23 | Change | St. Dev |
| Christie | N/A | $ 0.04 | ||
| DeSantis | $ 0.30 | $ 0.20 | -$0.10 | 0.0476 |
| Haley | $ 0.04 | $ 0.04 | $0.00 | 0.0057 |
| Pence | $ 0.04 | $ 0.02 | -$0.02 | 0.0037 |
| Ramaswamy | N/A | $ 0.13 | ||
| Scott | $ 0.07 | $ 0.09 | $0.02 | 0.0106 |
| Trump | $ 0.54 | $ 0.57 | $0.03 | 0.0230 |
Third Quarter PredictIt Share Price changes:
| Candidate | Sept 23 | Oct 23 | Change | St. Dev |
| Burgum | $ 0.01 | $ 0.01 | $0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Christie | $ 0.03 | $ 0.01 | -$0.02 | 0.0067 |
| DeSantis | $ 0.08 | $ 0.11 | $0.03 | 0.0121 |
| Haley | $ 0.10 | $ 0.13 | $0.03 | 0.0145 |
| Hutchinson | $ 0.01 | $ 0.01 | $0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Pence | $ 0.01 | $ 0.01 | $0.00 | 0.0030 |
| Ramaswamy | $ 0.10 | $ 0.04 | -$0.06 | 0.0166 |
| Scott | $ 0.02 | $ 0.01 | -$0.01 | 0.0057 |
| Trump | $ 0.73 | $ 0.70 | -$0.03 | 0.0130 |
A variety of factors could drive the general lack of price movement:
- Prediction markets traders could give more weight to polling.
- Fundraising numbers generally lined up relative to candidates’ standing in the polls.
- The seeming inevitability of Trump winning the GOP nomination may have rendered finance reports moot.
- The irrelevance of campaign committees in a campaign finance system with Super PACs.
- PredictIt’s legal uncertainty limiting liquidity so the market’s not accurately reflecting traders’ beliefs.
- Flaws in this methodology. Campaigns leak report numbers before deadlines, pundits speculate about them ahead of time, and the campaign finance system is so complex that people misinterpret the information.
Future analysis could look at the following:
- How the FEC reporting calendar affected the volume of trading on PredictIt.
- Isolate when campaigns announced or leaked finance information and how that moved (or didn’t move) PredictIt prices
For further information, a previous article looked at each GOP candidate’s total spending and chances as of June 30, 2023.