Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu        

/ Elections / By

Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt.  Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were the clear favorite from roughly mid-March, after the beginning of the pandemic, through late May, after the protests and riots over George Floyd’s murder.

Right now, several bookmakers, prediction markets, and forecasting platforms have both likely major party nominees trading well below 50%.  This means:

  • Conventional wisdom does not clearly favor either candidate.
  • Arbitrage opportunities exist for prediction market traders.

Global Macro Monitor has a good summary of the current arbitrage opportunities and risks.

Below we’re examining platform share prices, odds, and forecasts for winning the 2024 Presidential election by both the individual and the party: 

  • Donald Trump
  • The Republican nominee
  • Joe Biden
  • The Democratic nominee
PlatformTrumpGOPBidenDEM
PredictIt ($)0.460.480.410.51
Smarkets ($)0.43100.50760.31750.4673
IEM ($) 0.310 0.705
Manifold (M)0.450.480.480.52
Range (%)0.4387 0.4759 
Polymarket ($)0.540.530.320.48
Election Betting Odds (%)0.5180.4960.3150.492
Insight Prediction ($)0.530.700.46N/A
ACE ($)0.4260.540.400.46
Metaculus (%)0.500.490.460.48
Hypermind (ℍ) 0.49 0.51
Futuur ($,ø) 0.51 0.48
BetOnline ($)0.48780.53490.32260.50
Betfair($)0.5238 0.3333 
BetMGM ($)0.54050.54950.28570.5000
William Hill ($)0.52380.54050.29410.4878
Data was captured on February 21, 2024.

Not every platform has both candidates below 50% (or $0.50/share), but the variance between platforms is relatively large:

MarketDifference Max-MinMaxMin
Trump   0.1145BetMGMACE
GOP0.39InsightIEM
Biden0.1943ManifoldBetMGM
DEM0.245IEMACE

The American Civic Exchange (ACE) offered the lowest probabilities among platforms for both Donald Trump and the Democratic Party’s nominee.  Joe Biden’s highest probability was on Manifold, a play-money prediction market.                              

Please note the following caveats:

  • Share prices and probabilities are taken from one specific point in time on February 21, 2024, and are bound to fluctuate.  Please verify for yourself on each platform.
  • These prices don’t factor in withdrawal fees or taxes.
  • Low liquidity in certain platforms could be causing the extreme prices.
  • It’s possible that Biden’s health and/or Trump’s legal cases could be driving concerns about either becoming their party’s nominee for the fall.
  • Bookmaker implied probabilities sum up to greater than 1.  For example, BetMGM has the GOP at 0.5495 and Democrats at 0.5000, totaling 1.0495.  The amount over 1 (0.0495) is the “vig” by which bookmakers earn a profit.

Additionally, there were implications of Russian interference on PredictIt and Betfair during the 2020 election.  Essentially, unknown persons in Russia were speculated to be manipulating prices on each platform to aid Trump’s re-election efforts.  See the article “Reduced trolling on Russian holidays and daily US Presidential election odds” (2022) for more information.

Here is a summary of the various platforms we looked at:

PredictIt is a prediction market operated by Aristotle on behalf of Victoria University.  The site has been suing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to stop it from being shut down over allegedly violating a CFTC no-action letter.  The lack of certain over PredictIt’s future could be affecting share prices.

Smarkets is a British online betting exchange that allows peer-to-peer wagers on sports and politics. 

Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is the oldest operating prediction market run by the University of Iowa since 1988.

Manifold Markets is “a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.”  The play money is denoted in Mana (M) and can be bought with cash or converted to charitable donations.

Range (Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment) is “a crowdsourced forecasting program focused on geopolitics and the transatlantic relationship” operating on the Cultivate Labs forecasting platform.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market barred from operating in the U.S.  Prices were captured from Polymarket Whales.

Election Betting Odds is a forecast aggregating site that “averages live odds that it pulls from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com.”

Insight Prediction is Insight Prediction is a prediction market available everywhere but the U.S. and Russia.  Prices used are the “latest yes price.”

American Civic Exchange (ACE) is a “dealer of over-the-counter political swaps, enabling eligible investors to hedge and/or speculate on the outcomes of certain events.”  Only individuals and corporate entities worth more than $10 million are eligible to participate.

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and not a prediction market.

Hypermind is a French forecasting platform that uses a “Hyper virtual currency” (ℍ) with no intrinsic value but incentivizes players with cash prizes for the top forecasters.

Futuur is a Brazilian dual real- and play-money prediction market.  Play-money trading with “Ooms” (ø) is open to U.S. participants, but not real-money trading in U.S. dollars.

BetOnline is an online sportsbook operating since 1991 that also offers limited political betting.  Fractional gambling odds were converted into implied probabilities.

Betfair and William Hill are two British bookmakers.  BetMGM is the recent online gambling app owned by MGM Resorts and Entain.  All three platforms offer odds on the 2024 U.S. Presidential election to gamblers in the U.K.   Fractional odds were taken from Oddschecker.com and converted into implied probabilities.