Mick Bransfield

How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets?

Elections / / , , , , , ,

On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast.  Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions.  We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on […]

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Top Kalshi Markets

Uncategorized / / ,

For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume.   Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No).  A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share.  The share prices can indicate what traders believe

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Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time

Elections / / , , , ,

We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions.  This is challenging because the models made different predictions.  The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s

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Where are political traders splitting tickets?

Elections / / , , ,

This November’s midterm election will see 36 Gubernatorial races and 35 U.S. Senate races. Of the 44 states with at least one of those elections, 26 states will hold both. PredictIt currently has a market for 17 Senate races and 17 Gubernatorial races, but only one state has traders splitting their proverbial ticket: Pennsylvania. Traders

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