This November’s midterm election will see 36 Gubernatorial races and 35 U.S. Senate races. Of the 44 states with at least one of those elections, 26 states will hold both. PredictIt currently has a market for 17 Senate races and 17 Gubernatorial races, but only one state has traders splitting their proverbial ticket: Pennsylvania. Traders […]
Where are political traders splitting tickets? Read More »
Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,
Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August Read More »
Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets –
On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat. Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks. There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus
PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary Read More »
Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts. This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor. We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was
PredictIt Updates Oregon Gov. Market for Betsy Johnson Read More »
