We previously looked at Brier scores for The Economist’s 2020 Presidential model predictions over time, and surprisingly found the scores worsened closer to Election Day. Given the closeness of their predictions, I assumed FiveThirtyEight’s Brier scores would trend the same way but was wrong again. In the chart below you can see Brier scores for […]
How did FiveThirtyEight’s model perform over time? Read More »
PredictIt is a U.S.-based prediction market and SBK is a British sports betting app, but both are indicating that political gamblers see Republicans making gains in the U.S. Senate this year (at least as of Friday, February 4, 2022). The probabilities in the 12 Senate races where both platforms are currently accepting action are extremely
PredictIt and SBK forecasting Republican Senate gains in 2022 Read More »
As discussed in an earlier post, as of the morning of Election Day 2020, The Economist’s presidential forecasting model had a slightly higher Brier score (lower = better, higher = worse) than FiveThirtyEight’s model, but each model correctly predicted the outcome in the same number of states (49 out of 51). This made me curious
With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly
Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022 Read More »
In the summer of 2020, online trash talking between FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris sparked the “Model Wars.” Now that the dust has settled, I’m comparing the Brier scores and the number of correctly called states from their final state-level model outputs on November 3, 2020. Please note that the models
Who won the 2020 Model Wars? Read More »
