Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets – […]
On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat. Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks. There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus
PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary Read More »
Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts. This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor. We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was
PredictIt Updates Oregon Gov. Market for Betsy Johnson Read More »
Even for a self-proclaimed “gaffe machine,” President Joe Biden outdid himself on March 26th with the declaration, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Biden’s bold statement was quickly walked back by the White House: “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.” Despite the President of the United States
Gamblers are betting on Putin to remain in power through 2022 Read More »
In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.) Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious
Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions? Read More »
