Mick Bransfield

One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September

Government / /

A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of […]

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How accurate are Kalshi interest rate markets at predicting the Fed?

Government / /

On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell event contracts on where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but how accurate are these markets in predicting interest rates one month before the Fed is scheduled to meet? The Federal Reserve promotes national economic goals through several tools at its disposal, one of them being the “federal

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Did Yahoo Fantasy Football projections outperform the naïve forecast in 2021?

Uncategorized / / , , , ,

Anyone who plays in a Yahoo Fantasy Football league understands the frustration of relying on Yahoo’s fantasy forecasts.  The projected stats always seem to be wrong.  To quantify exactly how bad Yahoo is at projecting future performance, we’re going to compare Yahoo’s projected 2021 quarterback statistics to the naïve forecast of 2020 statistics.  Our hypothesis

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How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets?

Elections / / , , , , , ,

On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast.  Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions.  We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on

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Top Kalshi Markets

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For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume.   Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No).  A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share.  The share prices can indicate what traders believe

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