Uncategorized – Page 3 – MickBransfield.com

Did Yahoo Fantasy Football projections outperform the naïve forecast in 2021?

Uncategorized / August 3, 2022 / 2020, 2021, Fantasy, Football, Yahoo

Anyone who plays in a Yahoo Fantasy Football league understands the frustration of relying on Yahoo’s fantasy forecasts. The projected stats always seem to be wrong. To quantify exactly how bad Yahoo is at projecting future performance, we’re going to compare Yahoo’s projected 2021 quarterback statistics to the naïve forecast of 2020 statistics. Our hypothesis […]

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Top Kalshi Markets

Uncategorized / July 1, 2022 / COVID, Kalshi

For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume. Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate what traders believe

Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August

Uncategorized / May 15, 2022 / COVID, Kalshi, Polymarket

Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,

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