With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt […]
Remaining PredictIt markets with 75 days left Read More »
Senator Raphael Warnock’s two U.S. Senate races in Georgia were viewed very differently by PredictIt traders. In the 2020 U.S. Senate special election, all candidates ran in a “jungle primary” on the day of the General Election, with a runoff vote scheduled for January 5, 2021. The price for Democratic “Yes” contracts in the Georgia
PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022 Read More »
We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races. The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re
How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms? Read More »
The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons. More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct
Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022 Read More »
