The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is the oldest active prediction market and one of a handful of platforms where U.S. persons can bet on American politics. We’ve previously looked at IEM and a few of its iterations over time. One thing IEM does not do well is make the data easily accessible. Below is an […]
IEM Presidential Dashboard Read More »
Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were
Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu Read More »
Immune from news stories like Special Counsel Hur’s report or President Joe Biden’s press conference, Professor Ray Fair’s 2024 economy-driven vote share model shows Biden gaining ground since the last quarterly economic data was released. A summary of Professor Fair’s two-party vote-share model can be found in a previous article and here is Fair’s description
Updated Fair model shows economic fundamentals boosting Biden Read More »
When we looked at The Economist and FiveThirtyEight models’ respective error over time, there wasn’t a steady downward trend toward Election Day 2020. The models both fluctuated (within a very limited range) but the Economist’s lowest Brier score was on October 3rd, and it performed better than FiveThirtyEight until the final week of the campaign.
Manifold traders increase accuracy over time Read More »
There have been many other real-money prediction markets and election betting exchanges operating since The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) first opened on June 1, 1988. Some of these include Intrade, HedgeStreet (now known as Nadex), UBC Election Stock Market, The Penn State Prediction Markets, Politieke AandelenMarkt in Holland, and Wahl$treet in Germany. Not to mention
The last 25 years of the Iowa Electronic Markets Read More »
