Below we’re exploring volatility in PredictIt’s 18 markets for the 2022 U.S. Senate races, using standard deviation to measure share price volatility for the respective state’s Democratic candidate’s “Yes” contracts from April 23, 2022, through November 7, 2022 (199 days in total). Standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed the market prices are in […]
PredictIt Price Volatility in 2022 Senate Races Read More »
This was a big week for Kalshi, with Monday’s CFTC hearing and the exchange’s second anniversary. Like other prediction markets, Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate
Updated 9/22/2023: CFTC rejects Kalshi’s proposed election contracts. The Monday, June 26th meeting was cancelled and the CFTC announced that it has commenced a review of contracts self-certified by Kalshi. Mersinger Dissent Pham Dissent Questions for Public Comment Public Comments Below is a summary of background information for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) meeting
CFTC Kalshi cheat sheet Read More »
A previous article looked at how correlated certain 2024 Presidential candidate nomination contracts on PredictIt are with their respective parties winning the General Election. We saw a positive correlation through March 1st between PredictIt share prices for former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican nomination and the Republican Party’s candidate winning the 2024 U.S.
A closer look at relationship between Trump Nomination & GOP General Election chances Read More »
One of the most fascinating states, if not the most fascinating state, in recent elections is Georgia. Historically a “red” state, Former Vice-President Joe Biden upset President Donald Trump with a plurality in 2020, while two incumbent Republican Senators were replaced with Democrats. This was the first time since January 2003 that Georgia had been
Kemp – Walker Delta in 2022 Georgia General Election Read More »
