Two play-money prediction markets were set up to forecast the number of hurricanes in 2024. One market was closed to experts, and the other was open to the public. The first, CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Markets (CAHM), is run by Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL). The market ran from December 10, 2023, […]
Forecasting the 2024 Hurricane Season: Manifold v. Experts Read More »
With President Joe Biden out of the presidential race, assumed Democratic nominee Vice-President Kamala Harris is catching up to Former President Donald Trump (if not passing him) in the polls and the prediction markets. One exception to this trend is Professor Ray Fair’s economic model. Fair’s model had Biden receiving almost 52% of the vote
Fair model now favors Trump Read More »
With both sides surviving the 2020 Model Wars, the election forecasting blood feud continues through another election. In April 2023, news leaked out that Nate Silver and several FiveThirtyEight staffers would be victims of Disney’s mass layoffs. Silver’s last day working for “The Mouse” was June 30th and per his contract, ABC/Disney kept rights to
Pollster Rating Wars! Read More »
Yale Professor Ray Fair recently updated his two-party vote share model on April 25, 2024, with the latest economic data. He now projects Biden to receive 51.72% of the two-party vote share in the 2024 General Election. We previously looked at Professor Fair’s model from Fall 2023 and Winter 2024. This model relies on economic
Fair Model Projects Biden Vote Increasing Read More »
Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were
Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu Read More »
