2024

Pollster Rating Wars!

With both sides surviving the 2020 Model Wars, the election forecasting blood feud continues through another election. In April 2023, news leaked out that Nate Silver and several FiveThirtyEight staffers would be victims of Disney’s mass layoffs.  Silver’s last day working for “The Mouse” was June 30th and per his contract, ABC/Disney kept rights to

Pollster Rating Wars! Read More »

Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu        

Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt.  Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were

Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu         Read More »

Updated Fair model shows economic fundamentals boosting Biden

Immune from news stories like Special Counsel Hur’s report or President Joe Biden’s press conference, Professor Ray Fair’s 2024 economy-driven vote share model shows Biden gaining ground since the last quarterly economic data was released. A summary of Professor Fair’s two-party vote-share model can be found in a previous article and here is Fair’s description

Updated Fair model shows economic fundamentals boosting Biden Read More »