Election – MickBransfield.com

Public Comments Slam CFTC Proposed Election Contract Ban

Elections, Government / August 11, 2024 / Election

In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) third public comment hearing regarding election contracts in the past two years, public comments overwhelmingly opposed the proposed rule, with 755 comments opposing, 7 supporting, and 59 unclear, duplications, or spam. Information about the two prior public comment periods can be found here. This most recent public comment […]

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Fair model now favors Trump

Elections / August 2, 2024 / 2024, Election, Fair, Presidential

With President Joe Biden out of the presidential race, assumed Democratic nominee Vice-President Kamala Harris is catching up to Former President Donald Trump (if not passing him) in the polls and the prediction markets. One exception to this trend is Professor Ray Fair’s economic model. Fair’s model had Biden receiving almost 52% of the vote

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Fair Model Projects Biden Vote Increasing

Elections / May 1, 2024 / 2024, Election, Fair, IEM, Presidential

Yale Professor Ray Fair recently updated his two-party vote share model on April 25, 2024, with the latest economic data. He now projects Biden to receive 51.72% of the two-party vote share in the 2024 General Election. We previously looked at Professor Fair’s model from Fall 2023 and Winter 2024. This model relies on economic

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Does the Vice-Presidential pick matter?

Elections / April 1, 2024 / Election, IEM, Presidential

The inane speculation about Donald Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee is in full swing, with the media having just finished covering all of the silly possibilities for RFK Jr.’s pick. (It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.) This article aims to measure how much the VP pick matters to political traders using share prices from Presidential markets in the Iowa

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IEM Presidential Dashboard

Elections / March 15, 2024 / Election, IEM, Presidential

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is the oldest active prediction market and one of a handful of platforms where U.S. persons can bet on American politics. We’ve previously looked at IEM and a few of its iterations over time. One thing IEM does not do well is make the data easily accessible. Below is an

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