The New York Times recently wrote about how “The Fed’s Decisions Now Could Alter the 2024 Elections” (11/17/2023) and cited Yale Professor Ray Fair’s economy-driven election forecasting model: Professor Fair’s pioneering U.S. elections model does something that was fairly radical when he created it in the 1970s. It analyzes politics without really considering politics. Instead, […]
Ray Fair vs. Iowa Electronic Markets Read More »
We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination. Those reports are: Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st. The next period
FEC Reports Fail to Move Election Markets Read More »
The stock price for former President Donald Trump’s long-suffering SPAC seems to be unaffected by his prospects of winning the 2024 Presidential Election or his various legal issues. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) is a “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company established on a stock exchange to raise funds for future unidentified acquisitions
DWAC is immune from Trump’s presidential chances – for better or worse Read More »
This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on
GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th) Read More »
As the 1944 presidential election approached, predictions differed between the political pundits who prognosticated and the bookmakers who took bets on the presidential election. The former, who were seen as experts in politics, were forecasting a neck-and-neck race between incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, while the bookies
The Experts Versus Gamblers in 1944 Read More »
