On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell event contracts on where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but how accurate are these markets in predicting interest rates one month before the Fed is scheduled to meet? The Federal Reserve promotes national economic goals through several tools at its disposal, one of them being the “federal […]
How accurate are Kalshi interest rate markets at predicting the Fed? Read More »
For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume. Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate what traders believe
Top Kalshi Markets Read More »
Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,
Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August Read More »
With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly
Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022 Read More »
As Congress considers raising the Debt Ceiling yet again, Kalshi and PredictIt traders have different takes on whether (or rather when) Congress will take action this week. While their respective binary contracts operate similarly, the platforms themselves differ a great deal: PredictIt is a prediction market. There are limits to both market size and amount
Kalshi v. PredictIt on U.S. Debt Ceiling Read More »
