Last Updated: 07/22/2025 Press coverage of PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC has been wanting. Online news coverage is disproportionately covering PredictIt and the CFTC as a gambling or legal story, rather than a political one. Yahoo even classified one of the Aristotle press releases under “Entertainment.” Below is a short timeline of events and media […]
PredictIt Legal Case Information Read More »
A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of
One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September Read More »
On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell event contracts on where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but how accurate are these markets in predicting interest rates one month before the Fed is scheduled to meet? The Federal Reserve promotes national economic goals through several tools at its disposal, one of them being the “federal
How accurate are Kalshi interest rate markets at predicting the Fed? Read More »
For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume. Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate what traders believe
Top Kalshi Markets Read More »
Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,
Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August Read More »
