Manifold

Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon

Government / / , , , ,

In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th.  This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, […]

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Manifold by the Numbers

Uncategorized / /

Manifold Markets describes itself as “a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.”  There probably isn’t a better way to describe it.  A unique combination of PredictIt (simple user interface), Hypermind (play-money), and Metaculus (create your own markets), Manifold gamifies forecasting for a wide variety of interests and subcultures. The play-money is

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Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term

Government / / , , , ,

Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th.  However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most

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