When we looked at the betting markets a few weeks ago, gamblers were eyeing Republican wins in 11 of the 12 Senate races where both PredictIt and SBK were taking action. In the past week, gamblers seem to see the 12th race – New Hampshire – as moving towards the GOP.
PredictIt, Smarkets, and SBK all have their respective share prices or implied probabilities for the Republican Senate candidate to win in New Hampshire at or above 0.5. And PredictIt share prices for “Democrat: No” in the Senate race are at 0.49/share.
This could be the canary in a coal mine. There is no public polling data for the race available in the past 6 weeks. Hassan has led every potential GOP challenger except NH Governor Chris Sununu, who declared he isn’t running last November. It’s possible the pricing is beginning to reflect gamblers are expecting a midterm backlash in November.
Of course, there are some qualifications:
- The Democratic candidate is still priced slightly higher than the Republican candidate on all three sites, at this moment.
- Maggie Hassan, the Democratic Incumbent, and the expected nominee is running for re-election. She won in 2016 with less than 50%. Both party primaries will be held on September 13th.
- The markets have low volume currently. PredictIt has only 35,024 active shares and Smarkets has $2,204 traded overall. For reference, in the 2024 Presidential markets PredictIt has 432,786 active shares and Smarkets has $867,569 traded.
- SBK and Smarkets pricing are not independent of each other. SBK betting app draws on Smarkets exchange for pricing, and both share the same political betting guru, Matthew Shaddick.
PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC. PredictIt traders can buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. PredictIt traders can buy shares on which party (defined as “Democratic” or “Republican”) will win the New Hampshire U.S. Senate election.
Smarkets is a British online betting exchange, allowing peer-to-peer wagers on sports and politics. SBK is a British sports betting app created by Smarkets to disrupt the bookmaking industry. It is a mobile app sportsbook that draws on prices from the Smarkets exchange. The odds for both SBK and Smarkets are taken from oddschecker.com and converted into implied probabilities.
The midterm election is still 256 days away, and much will likely change between now and then. But if gamblers see a red wave akin to 2014, 2010, or even 1994, will Colorado be the next race to show movement in price and/or odds? Republicans last won a Colorado Senate race with Cory Gardner in 2014, but with only 48.21% of the vote. The Republican bench in Colorado is thin; there’s only one statewide Republican elected official now, and she’s already running for Governor.