Kalshi Turns Three

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Kalshi turns three years old today, and the past year has been a rollercoaster for the exchange:

  • The CFTC reviewed Kalshi election contracts.
  • The CFTC rejected said election contracts.
  • Kalshi (currently) is suing the CFTC.
  • The CFTC (currently) is attempting to ban all election contracts.
  • Hot dog markets.
  • Someone gave the Kalshi Twitter account password to the new intern.
  • Kalshi at Manifest 2024.

Previously we took a looked at Kalshi for its one-year and two-year anniversaries, and now we’re again taking a look at the exchange’s growth since we last checked in.

Top markets by trading volume

Previously limited to markets with over 500,000 shares traded.  Over the first year of its existence, only five markets broke that threshold.  By the end of the second year, 17 (+12) markets had volume over 500,000.  By its third birthday today, Kalshi now has 60 (+43) markets over that number.

To make this a little more manageable, we’re going to raise the bar to $1 million, and only look at volume over the past 12 months. 

Here are the 19 markets that broke a volume of 1,000,000 shares traded over the past 12 months:

MarketSummaryVolume
NASDAQ100Y-24DEC31-B12250Nasdaq price range at the end of 20244,284,608
INXD-24DEC31-B3300S&P price range at the end of 20243,609,071
INXD-24DEC31-B5700S&P price range at the end of 20243,347,263
INXY-23DEC29-B3800S&P price range at the end of 20232,449,616
NASDAQ100Y-23DEC29-B13250Nasdaq price range at the end of 20232,349,429
INXD-24DEC31-B3700S&P price range at the end of 20242,323,164
NASDAQ100Y-24DEC31-B12750Nasdaq price range at the end of 20242,301,547
INXD-24DEC31-B3500S&P price range at the end of 20242,273,026
NASDAQ100Y-24DEC31-B13750Nasdaq price range at the end of 20241,782,890
RATECUT-24JUN12Fed rate cut by June 20241,780,280
RATECUT-24JUL31Fed rate cut by July 20241,446,416
INXY-23DEC29-B5200S&P price range at the end of 20231,370,911
FED-24JUN-T5.25Fed Funds rate in June 20241,349,824
NASDAQ100Y-24DEC31-B13250Nasdaq price range at the end of 20241,277,093
INXD-24DEC31-T5799.99S&P price range at the end of 20241,240,813
NASDAQ100Y-23DEC29-B12750Nasdaq price range at the end of 20231,155,514
INXD-24DEC31-B3900S&P price range at the end of 20241,152,403
RATECUT-24MAY01Fed rate cut by May 20241,108,591
NASDAQ100Y-24DEC31-B14250Nasdaq price range at the end of 20241,018,353

The yearly market close events are still the most traded, comprising 15 of the top 19 markets by volume.  The remaining four are all centered on potential Federal Reserve rate changes.

Kalshi year-over-year

PeriodVolume
Year One (21-22)38,749,075
Year Two (22-23)119,700,082
Year Three (23-24)270,730,577
Total429,179,734

Kalshi is still experiencing rapid growth, more than doubling trading volume year-over-year.

Growth Drivers

The top 5 events account for 50% of Kalshi volume in Year Three:

EventSummaryVolume
INXD     Daily S&P close price range, through Jan 19, 202438,721,350
INX     Daily S&P close price range, beginning Jan 22, 202431,441,542
NASDAQ100Y     Nasdaq price range at the end of the year22,237,907
NASDAQ100     Nasdaq price range at the end of the day, beginning Jan 22, 202421,861,594
NASDAQ100D     Nasdaq price range at the end of the day, through Jan 19, 202420,975,751

And these were really just three events as Kalshi switched naming conventions for daily markets in January 2024.

For anyone interested, Kalshi Market Data and Trade Data are publicly available.