Mick Bransfield

Prediction Market 2026 Legislation Tracker

Regulatory /

Last updated: 03/05/2026 Below is a tracker for prediction market legislation in Congress and state legislatures. Legislation tracking sites and services were not capturing everything so this page attempts to compile everything introduced in 2026. Congressional Legislation Body Legislation Sponsor Party-State Status Notes House H.R. 7004 Torres, Richie D-NJ Referred to the Committee on Oversight […]

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History of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (and why it matters today)

Regulatory / /

At 30 years old, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) bridges the different eras of prediction markets. Founded in 1995 during the dotcom bubble, HSX was only the second play-money prediction market. Later, it was acquired by Cantor Fitzgerald, which attempted to offer real-money box office futures via Cantor Futures, one of the early attempts to

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Forecasting the 2024 Hurricane Season: Manifold v. Experts

Global / / , ,

Two play-money prediction markets were set up to forecast the number of hurricanes in 2024. One market was closed to experts, and the other was open to the public. The first, CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Markets (CAHM), is run by Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL). The market ran from December 10, 2023,

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ForecastEx Year One

Elections, Uncategorized / /

The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi have sucked up most of the oxygen in the prediction market news media and Twittersphere, to the point that ForecastEx and crypto.com are now merely afterthoughts. (Maybe not so much crypto.com after today’s partnership announcement with Underdog). Kalshi monthly volume is ~$700m, Polymarket is ~$1b. What do you think

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