Mick Bransfield

Public Comments Slam CFTC Proposed Election Contract Ban

Elections, Government / /

In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) third public comment hearing regarding election contracts in the past two years, public comments overwhelmingly opposed the proposed rule, with 755 comments opposing, 7 supporting, and 59 unclear, duplications, or spam. Information about the two prior public comment periods can be found here. This most recent public comment […]

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Pollster Rating Wars!

Elections / / , ,

With both sides surviving the 2020 Model Wars, the election forecasting blood feud continues through another election. In April 2023, news leaked out that Nate Silver and several FiveThirtyEight staffers would be victims of Disney’s mass layoffs.  Silver’s last day working for “The Mouse” was June 30th and per his contract, ABC/Disney kept rights to

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Kalshi Turns Three

Uncategorized / /

Kalshi turns three years old today, and the past year has been a rollercoaster for the exchange: Previously we took a looked at Kalshi for its one-year and two-year anniversaries, and now we’re again taking a look at the exchange’s growth since we last checked in. Top markets by trading volume Previously limited to markets

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How Accurate are Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts?

Global / /

Many stories have been about the upcoming “hyperactive” hurricane season predicted this year, but how accurate are these forecasts about the number of hurricanes each year?  Accurate hurricane forecasts have immense social and economic value.  Improvements in merely forecasting the accuracy of  hurricane wind speed have been estimated to “reduced hurricane costs – damages, recovery

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