U.S. Navy sailors betting bottles of booze to help locate a lost submarine might be the greatest sea tale in the entire history of the U.S. Navy. This (true) anecdote was popularized by James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds (2004), which cites a passage from Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story Of American Submarine […]
Scotch & Sonar: Betting to Find a Lost Sub Read More »
Here is an updated version #3 of the “prediction market database” started by Jacob Lagerros and updated by Nuño Sempere: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_LdVAARaSHrI5CWiYKH7dV9s/edit?usp=sharing These are almost certainly not every single prediction market in existence or that was ever created, but an attempt to catalogue as much as possible. Please add any that you see are absent. This
Prediction Market Database (v3) Read More »
This is an update in a series of posts looking at Kalshi trading volume on its July 1st anniversary You can also read previous posts for its one-year and two-year and three-year birthdays. One caveat to everything below is that we’re missing market data from 10 days: 2024-10-13, 2024-11-15, 2024-12-10, 2024-12-13, 2025-01-01, 2025-01-04, 2025-01-06, 2025-02-13,
In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) third public comment hearing regarding election contracts in the past two years, public comments overwhelmingly opposed the proposed rule, with 755 comments opposing, 7 supporting, and 59 unclear, duplications, or spam. Information about the two prior public comment periods can be found here. This most recent public comment
Public Comments Slam CFTC Proposed Election Contract Ban Read More »
With President Joe Biden out of the presidential race, assumed Democratic nominee Vice-President Kamala Harris is catching up to Former President Donald Trump (if not passing him) in the polls and the prediction markets. One exception to this trend is Professor Ray Fair’s economic model. Fair’s model had Biden receiving almost 52% of the vote
Fair model now favors Trump Read More »
