Mick Bransfield

Kissinger’s Betting Odds

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a public meeting to discuss proposed rules regarding event contracts.  Under current regulations, there are only a few enumerated restrictions on contracts, including war, terrorism, and assassination. Those three restrictions were mentioned repeatedly during the two-hour meeting, reminding one of the apocryphal story about former Secretary of […]

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Two Upcoming Events About Prediction Markets’ Legal Status

There are two upcoming events related to the PredictIt (April 18th) and Kalshi (May 30th) lawsuits against the CFTC: (1) Clarke v. CFTC webinar The Federalist Society is hosting a webinar featuring the attorney representing the plaintiffs in the PredictIt lawsuit, as well as Aristotle’s General Counsel. Discussing Clarke v. CFTC: The Case of PredictIt

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Does the Vice-Presidential pick matter?

The inane speculation about Donald Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee is in full swing, with the media having just finished covering all of the silly possibilities for RFK Jr.’s pick.  (It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.) This article aims to measure how much the VP pick matters to political traders using share prices from Presidential markets in the Iowa

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